It’s coming, but it has been coming for a long time. Patience is still needed.
Episode Summary:
Nuclear fusion nuclear fusion is perhaps the most widely anticipated and desirable technology of the last 50 years, but it is also the most frustrating in engineering terms. Containing reactions that operate at temperatures that are literally the same as those in the Sun is a challenge that test the limits of current technology, and it’s been that way for half a century. Is the reason for hope that we may finally have turned the corner on this potentially planet changing technology? Jim Anderton thinks so, but with a caveat.
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Transcript of this week’s show:
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What’s the most significant development in engineering in 2021? Some look to rocketry and spaceflight, quantum computing or civil engineering mega projects, but I think it’s where money intersects with environmentalism: nuclear fusion. You know when technology has permeated mainstream consciousness when you see it in Hollywood. In the Michael J. Fox vehicle Back to the Future, the flying DeLorean was powered by a coffee maker sized fusion reactor called Mr. Fusion, fuelled by literally, garbage.
Fanciful as that may seem, that’s essentially the promise of fusion energy. Use little or nothing as fuel and produce vast quantities of clean energy. The search for a system that can actually do this goes back to the 1950s, and since the 1970s, the popular press has talked of how commercial fusion reactors are about 20 years away. Are we still 20 years away? Probably, but there’s a difference now in that the global investment community is now starting to pour capital into fusion ventures that would never have seen NASDAQ, let alone the Dow.
Suddenly, fusion is no longer science-fiction, but is attracting real interest from global capital. There are a couple of reasons for this, and not all of them have to do with engineering. We have a cash saturated market that’s hungry for returns, and with asset prices bid sky high, it’s getting harder and harder for that money to find a place to work. And although few bets are as risky as commercial fusion development, the potential returns are of course, spectacular. What is the value of a company that can produce endless amounts of clean energy in the age of global warming? Between here and there however there are more than a few obstacles.
There are multiple technologies under development, from polywell to stellarators, magnetic plasma confinement, laser ignition and even a novel mechanical system managing shockwaves in liquid metal. Magnetic plasma confinement has had decades of development, and billions of dollars with mega projects like ITER in France. Some operations, like Lawrenceville Plasma Physics in New Jersey, operate on a shoestring and hope to exploit novel technologies to do an end run around the incredibly large and complex systems needed to confine plasmas, or ignite fuel pellets with lasers. General Fusion, the Canadian-based company that is developing a novel mechanical shockwave technology, has drawn enough investment to begin construction of a test reactor in the UK.
Now to be clear, no one has demonstrated engineering breakeven, the point at which the amount of energy out of the system is the same as the energy pumped into the system plus the energy to operate the equipment. But money is a key metric of confidence, and the amounts of investment now flowing into fusion startups shows a clear expectation of commercial reactors in an investor’s timeline, which is generally under a decade.
But what if the systems don’t work? That likelihood is decreasing every year, as supercomputers and advanced simulation are combined with a better understanding of the science of nuclear fusion. There are simply fewer unknowns today by the time engineers sit down to render a reactor.
It’s the combination of high-performance computing, simulation software, and a large influx of that critical engineering lubricant, money that I think will take us to that inflection point on the development curve whereby this time next year, one or two clear leaders in the race to commercial fusion technology will emerge. Will it be laser ignition? Magnetic confinement? Hydraulic rams? It’s hard to tell, but once that clear pathway to commercial success is demonstrated, money will not be a problem. I can’t wait to report back next year.
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