As the end of the year quickly approaches, we look ahead to 2015 to see what new technologies are poised to disrupt the status quo for all of us. Every year, IDC issues a report that predicts what technologies will be the most significant.
In a webcast announcing the report, IDC’s senior vice president and chief analyst Frank Gens advised that all companies should “Amazon” themselves, indicating the trend in innovation today is at scale, high-velocity and low-cost. IDC predicts that China will use this type of innovation to join Amazon in ruling the world of technology.
In the report Gens says the Third Platform will account for one third of global Information and Communications Technology (ICT) spending and 100% of spending growth. “The industry is now entering the most critical period yet in the 3rd Platform era: the ‘Innovation Stage’,” he said. “This stage will be driven by a new wave of core technologies – innovation accelerators – that radically extend the 3rd Platform’s capabilities and applications across all industries.”
Here’s more of IDC’s 2015 predictions:
Worldwide IT and telecommunications spending will grow
Worldwide IT and telecommunications spending will grow 3.8% in 2015 to more than $3.8 trillion. Nearly all of the growth and one third of total spending will be on new technologies, such as mobile, cloud, big data analytics and the Internet of Things (IoT). Wireless data will also be the fastest growing (13%) and largest ($536 billion) of telecom spending. Net Neutrality will be mandated in the U.S., with a hybrid approach that will provide a baseline of services available to all.
Phablets will be the mobile growth engine
Sales of smartphones and tablets will slow down slightly, reaching $484 billion and accounting for 40% of all IT spending growth. Phablet sales will grow 60%, while wearables will disappoint, with only 40-50 million units sold in 2015. A wrist-phone will ship and ultimately flop. Mobile app downloads will slow in 2015, reaching $150 billion, but enterprise mobile app development will more than double.
The Cloud’s landscape will be reshaped
Spending on the greater cloud ecosystem (public, private, enabling IT and services) will reach $118 billion (almost $200 billion by 2018), $70 billion ($126 billion by 2018) of which will be spent on public clouds. Amazon will survive attacks on many fronts to maintain or even gain market share. IDC also predicts some unlikely partnerships in the cloud market in 2015, such as Facebook with Microsoft and/or IBM or Amazon partnering with HP.
Data-as-a-Service will drive new big data supply chains
Worldwide spending on big data-related software, hardware, and services will reach $125 billion. Rich media analytics (video, audio, and image) will emerge as an important driver of big data projects, tripling in size. 25% of top IT vendors will offer Data-as-a-Service (DaaS) as cloud platform and analytics vendors offer value-added information from commercial and open data sets. IoT will be the next critical focus for data/analytics services with 30% CAGR over the next five years, and in 2015 we will see a growing numbers of apps and competitors (e.g., Microsoft, Amazon, Baidu ) providing cognitive/machine learning solutions.
The IoT will continue to rapidly expand the traditional IT industry
IoT spending will exceed $1.7 trillion, up 14% from 2014 (and will reach $3 trillion by 2020). One-third of spending for intelligent/embedded devices will come from outside of the IT and telecom industries. According to IDC, this amounts to a “dramatic expansion of what we would consider IT.” Seeing the opportunity, a number of traditional IT vendors (possibly Cisco, IBM, and Intel) will form “an IoT solutions company.” Predictive maintenance will emerge as an important IoT solutions category.
Cloud services will continue to explode in growth
Cloud services remain a hotbed of activity in 2015 with $118 billion in spending on the greater cloud ecosystem. Adoption of cloud Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) will grow briskly (36%) as market leader Amazon comes under attack from all directions as challengers attempt the “Amazoning of Amazon.”
A shift to datacenters operated by cloud service providers will spark a burst of “cloud first” hardware innovations and drive greater consolidation among server, storage, software, and networking vendors. By 2016, over 50% of compute and 70% of storage capacity will be installed in hyperscale data centers. IDC expects to see two or three major mergers, acquisitions, or restructurings among the top-tier IT vendors in 2015.
Rapid growth of industry-specific digital platforms
New technologies will combine to create a business innovation platform that will help transform all industries. One-third of market share leaders in every industry will be disrupted by vendors selling new IT products and services. The number of industry platforms – industry-specialized cloud-based data and services platforms, usually created by leaders within the industry – will expand rapidly, doubling in 2015 to 60.
Adoption of new security innovations
Next year 15% of mobile devices will be accessed biometrically (over 50% by 2020). Securing the core: 20% of regulated data will be encrypted by year-end 2015 (80% by 2018). Threat intelligence will emerge as a killer DaaS category: By 2017, 55% of enterprises will receive customized threat intelligence data feeds.
3D printing will continue its explosive growth
3D printing will see significant activity among conventional document printing companies: 2015 spending will surge 27%, to $3.4 billion, and by 2020, 10%+ of consumer products will be available through “produce on demand” via 3D printing.
China continues to be a driving market force
China’s spending will account for 43% of all industry growth in the IT and telecom market in 2015 with one third of all smartphone purchases and about one third of all online shoppers. With a huge domestic market, China’s cloud and ecommerce leaders (Alibaba in ecommerce, Tencent in social, and Baidu in search) will rise to prominence globally. Chinese branded smartphone makers will capture 40% of the worldwide smartphone market in 2015.
