Can We Manufacture 37,000 New Aircraft Over the Next 20 Years?
Ian Wright posted on July 10, 2018 |
(Image courtesy of Airbus.)
(Image courtesy of Airbus.)
The world’s passenger fleet will more than double to 48,000 aircraft in 20 years with traffic growing at a rate of 4.4 percent per year, driving a need for 37,390 new passenger and freighter aircraft. That’s according to Airbus’ new Global Market Forecast 2018-2037.

Growth drivers include private consumption increasing 2.4 times in emerging economies, higher disposable incomes and a near doubling of the middle classes globally. Emerging countries will account for over 60 percent of economic growth, with trips per capita to multiply by a factor of 2.5 for these nations.

“There is a growing trend to use aircraft across a broader range of operations, with today’s more capable aircraft blurring the boundaries between market segments,” said Eric Schulz, Airbus Chief Commercial Officer. “These realities made us develop a new segmentation with Small, Medium, Large and Extra-Large categories, reflecting more closely the way airlines operate aircraft.”

Looking at the four segmentations more closely, the Small segment typically covers the space where most of today’s single-aisle aircraft compete. The forecasted future requirement is for 28,550 new aircraft, representing more than three-quarters of total expected demand.

In the Medium segment, represented by smaller widebodies and longer-range single-aisle aircraft, Airbus forecasts demand for 5,480 passenger and freight aircraft.

In the Large segment where most A350s are present today, there is a need for 1,760 aircraft.

Finally, in the Extra-Large segment, typically reflecting high capacity and long range missions by the largest aircraft types including the A350-1000 and the A380, Airbus forecasts demand for 1,590 aircraft over the next 20 years.

Of the 37,390 new aircraft required, 26,540 are for growth and 10,850 will replace older, less fuel-efficient aircraft.

Additionally, more than doubling in the world fleet to 48,000 aircraft will result in a need for 540,000 new pilots.

For less optimistic news from Airbus, find out why Two Unwanted Airbus A380s are going to Be Scrapped.


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